Would it surprise you to learn that 2026 is shaping up to be the third best year on record for Southwest Florida home sales?
Third Best Year on Record
A few months ago we reported that 2025 was the 4th best year on record for home sales, behind 2022, 2021, and 2020. As you can see from the chart, not only are we currently ahead of 2025, but also 2020. If these numbers hold up for the balance of the year, we could be in for quite a year.
Current Market Index Strengthening
The Ellis Team Current Market Index has predicted future strength in the housing market in Lee County and we are seeing it. Our Current Market Index fell to 3.43, which shows considerable strength in the housing market. Last week it was 3.67. Later in the week we’ll be releasing our Market Spread Index. We believe that number will be below last week’s number of 5,736, which would also show further strengthening.
Home Prices
A declining Current Market Index will eventually lead to increasing home prices. Right now, we are still in the stabilization phase, but we are not too far from swinging over to a seller’s advantage market in some segments. Median prices increased over January numbers and were down 2.6% from year ago February numbers. Average single family home prices were down from January levels and up 7% from last February prices.
Luxury Home Sales
Luxury homes have been faring better as well. As we write this article, luxury numbers were not available but will be by the time it prints. We expect the luxury index to improve as well. All of these numbers are published weekly on our website at https://www.topagent.com The Ellis Team is the Southwest Florida Real Estate Market data authority
2026 Outlook
A quick glance at recently published official numbers shows months supply of inventory is down to 7.1 months compared to 8.8 months last year. Our numbers show even less supply of inventory. Pending inventory is up 7.7%. Dollar volume is up 33.1% in February of 2026. The question is, can we sustain these gains? The answer probably depends on how long the price of oil remains elevated and how the economy fares in the next 6 months. We are expecting a few interest rate decreases in 2026 which should help.
Bottom Line
Buyers are losing leverage, and sellers are gaining. If this trend continues after season, we will know 2026 is going to be a good year. Buyers should develop a strategy now. The Ellis Team conducts buyer and seller strategy sessions so each of our clients knows exactly what the market is telling us. There are risks in not knowing the market, especially when we see shifting data like we are now.
If you are a seller, call Brett or Sande Ellis at 239-489-4042 or visit www.SWFLhomevalues.com for an instant online value. We can confirm the computer’s accuracy later. If you are a buyer, call us at the same number and we’ll be happy to have a strategy session with you too and develop your game plan for this market.
Good luck, and Happy House Hunting!
