While researching data on closed sales of homes, we noticed a similarity with 2023. In fact, 2019 and 2024 sales data are similar, but 2023 looks the closest to us. What conclusions can we draw if the foreclosure sales data is out as early as 2023?
In mid-2025 inventory stood at 7,004 single-family home listings. In mid-2024, it stood at 6,200. This is a 12.97% increase in listings with similar closings. This does not bode well for SW Florida home sellers and home sale prices.
Pending sale since March 26 last yearTh 2024 all the way to January 21St 2025 when they started to pick up again. It is not surprising that inventory increased. Currently inventory has started to build up and pending sales have softened as of 2023.
Falling prices?
Will we continue to see falling prices? If 2024 is an indicator, the answer would be yes. However, this does not mean that house prices will follow the 2024 trend. 2025 is a different year. Interest rates are falling as are insurance costs. Some would argue that we may not see further rate cuts for a while, and if that’s true, rates could fall further. Insurance costs are improving, so we’ll take it. Many Americans are tight on money, so spending isn’t the opposite, which means there isn’t much upside in home prices for a while.
Further price cuts are likely before things improve. Prices are also likely to stabilize as sellers take their homes off the market and wait a year or two. The real question is, how many sellers can afford to wait a year or two to sell?
Seller motivation
When I say how many sellers can afford to wait a year or two, it’s not necessarily a financial decision. Sure, some need to sell because the financing isn’t there to support maintaining the home. For others, it’s more of a decision of necessity. Sometimes people move, get divorced, leave home for family inheritance etc. Having a home that no longer serves its intended purpose needs to be sold, and they can’t wait. We are looking at how inventory levels are holding up against pending demand and last outages. All this will tell us the direction and speed of house prices.
2026 Outlook
The year 2026 could start like 2025. The blueprint looks like 2025 unless something changes. When the government reopens, we’ll start getting some data on inflation and employment. We may have lost the October data forever, but we’ll start getting it back at some point. When the economy and the Fed stop playing around, the future will come into the picture. Since we have some excess inventory, the market cannot rise on any dime. Markets take time to change, but it will be good to get a sense of direction.
As we write this article, we do not know the results of the mayoral races. Granted, mayors can only do so much, so many promises can never be kept. However, if socialism is adopted in major American cities, it can transfer money from those cities and states to cities like Miami, Austin, Dallas, and others. Florida could be a beneficiary of money and jobs moving to the state.
Something tells me this won’t be the runaway election everyone thinks it is, but politics isn’t my thing. I just look at it in terms of how it can affect real estate markets. By the time you read this article, we should know the result. If Mamdani wins, we’ll study to see if there are implications for Florida’s real estate market going forward.
Strategy meeting
If you would like to have a strategy session with Brett or Sunday Alice, give us a call 239-310-6500. We’d be happy to sit down with you and go over your options. Or visit www.swflhomevalues.com for a fast and free online home value estimate for your home.
Good luck, and happy selling!
