In SW Florida we are seeing inventory levels that are moving ahead of last year’s pace. Single-family home inventory unofficially peaked on March 18Th2025, at 9,367 homes on the market. On November 19 last yearTh We had 7,067 homes on the market and up all the way through March 18Th. Inventory levels are rising this year and already stand at 7,478. Basically, we already have 411 more homes on the market than we did this year.
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We track the gap, which is the difference between homes coming on the market and homes coming into homes. This gap has been increasing since September 9Th2025. The same happened last year, which tells us that if nothing changes, inventory levels in 2026 could exceed 2025 levels. Inventory cannot increase if more homes are coming on the market than there are.
Pending home sales have increased over the past few weeks, but not enough to offset the gains in new listings entering the market.
Inventory levels are increasing from last year
Home prices are lower than last year as a result of increased inventory levels. In the latest posted numbers, median single-family home prices fell 2.1 percent in September. We’ll get some new numbers this week, but not in time for our deadline for this article. We’re tracking 1,105 home sales in Lee County with a median price of $393,000. The median home price in October last year was $400,000 so that’s a 1.75% decrease. Our numbers track unofficial numbers within our MLS. There will be other sales published by other MLSs that may affect these numbers. The average sales price figure may also be lower.
Year during year
Last year Hurricanes Helene and Milton affected SW Florida to a degree. While neither delivered a direct hit, the closings were impressive. For example, we only had 886 sales posted this year compared to 1,105+.
What can help this year?
Last year we had high interest rates and two hurricanes close enough to flood some homes and delay some foreclosures. If you remember, the Fed cut rates low right before the election, but the mortgage market wasn’t in it. The Fed has cut rates twice this year and mortgage rates are lower. Additionally, we have not been hit by any hurricanes in the Gulf this year. As a result, insurance rates were already falling due to insurance reform, and they may stay.
Triple option
If we see lower interest rates combined with lower insurance rates in 2026, and finally more people moving from high tax states like IL, CA, NJ, and NY, we could get a triple boost in our housing market. However, if none of this works, we could see a continuation of diminishing positive effects and rising inventory levels. Remember we said earlier, if nothing changes, inventory levels could be high, and we could see prices drop further. We are closely monitoring these factors along with economic conditions. We don’t invent facts, just report and deal with them.
When the market was booming, many people said that realtors were raising prices. Realtors don’t dictate sales prices, the market does. A good realtor can help a seller get top dollar for their property, but the market decides what top dollar is. Good realtors know market statistics and can help advise clients on how to operate in the market they are dealing with. The Realtors you get your information from are not responsible for the market, good or bad, but rather provide valuable information. It pays to listen to realtors who know the market.
Always call the Alice team at Keller Williams Realty 239-489-4042 Or search for homes at www.leecountyonline.com Good luck, and happy house hunting!
