We are seeing better housing supply numbers for sellers than we did back in April. Housing inventory has declined sharply over the past several months. Let’s analyze the numbers and see if we can draw any conclusions about the future of the SW Florida real estate market.
Number of provision of improved housing
Lee County’s single family months supply of inventory is currently 6.17 months. In April, this figure was 8.36 months. If you remember, the balanced market is anywhere between 5.5 months supply and 6 months. We’re technically still in a buyer’s market, but if inventory continues to dwindle, for how much longer?
Which price ranges have performed best since April? Hands down this is the 1 million+ category. In April it was 16.17 months and now it is down to 9.84 months. The next best categories are the k 800k-$1 million and k 600k-$800K ranges.
$800K-$1 million is less than 4.09 months, and up to 8.55 months, and $600K-$800K is less than 4.02 months.
Are price ranges broken? The answer is no; All price ranges have improved.
Pending sale in the fall
Every week we track pending sales. Pending sales for single-family homes this past week were 1,474. It’s not uncommon to see a 90-home drop early in the month as many close at the end of the month. When they close, they come out of pending status. We’re seeing the lowest pending sales number since February 4, 2025. I went back and looked last year, and the same thing happened. Last year it took on a pending sale until February 11, 2025 to return to last September’s level. Inventory levels climbed from September 3Rd By its peak on March 18, it had risen from 6,081 to 9,367.
Housing provision is moving forward
Today the housing supply in our MLS is at 6,093. Officially it will be a little higher because other MLSs around the state may have some Lee County listings. If pending sales continue to decline and inventory continues to increase as it did last year, this may affect the month’s inventory supply. We won’t be surprised unless we get surprisingly bearish news about the economy and interest rates.
As rates fall
As rates fall we may see more sellers enter the market. Many people have refinanced their current home at 3% and their home no longer fits their needs. Flipping that home at a high rate doesn’t always work financially, but as rates start to drop, we may see more sellers enter the market. This can lead to an increase in inventory. Pricing pressure has been subdued in the past year, and rising inventory won’t help. The Alice team will be looking at these key metrics on a weekly basis, as pricing will need to be driven forward.
Alice Team’s clients will always be in the know, because knowing what’s happening today and what’s likely to happen in the future is key to making the best financial decisions. We base our model on the latest depth data available in our local market, and we analyze every week.
Thinking of buying or selling?
Always call Brett or Sunday Alice with the Alice team at Keller Williams Realty 239-310-6500. Or visit www.swflhomevalues.com for a free and quick online value for your home. Check it out and let us know how accurate you think it is. If you’re thinking of selling, we’ll be happy to validate the estimate and make sure you get top dollar when selling your home. We have many buyers currently shopping in some subdivisions. Call us to see if we already have a buyer for your home.
Good luck, and happy selling!
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